Baseline Econometric Model and Solar Energy Requirement for Potential Hydrogen Demand in Tarlac, Philippines

Abstract

This study aims to build a baseline econometric model for the possible development of green hydrogen production in Tarlac. Scenario analysis will consider hydrogen produced from renewable solar energy as an alternative energy carrier in the fuel mix for electricity generation in Tarlac to achieve sustainable economic growth and improve energy security while minimizing carbon emissions and improving resource efficiency. Tarlac is the chosen area to be considered in this study because this is where New Clark City is being established. New Clark City is a 9450-hectare disaster-resilient, environment-friendly, integrated urban development metropolis. It is important to build the baseline econometric model before proceeding with scenario generation. The parameters used are determined from available historical data through statistical procedures. The basic assumption is that the relationships between the independent and dependent variables that existed in the past will continue to be true in the future. The energy demand data and the continuous predictors were used to build a baseline econometric model for potential hydrogen demand in Tarlac, Philippines. Model equations were obtained using stepwise regression analysis. These model equations were used to forecast the energy demand up to 2032. These forecasted energy demands will be used in scenario generation to integrate green hydrogen production. Preliminary assessments of green hydrogen scenarios that are based on the assumption of renewable energy surplus generated from solar power plants in Tarlac are discussed. The forecasted demand will be used to assess the scenario generation in integrating green hydrogen in New Clark City. The proposed energy management strategy of storing surplus renewable energy, such as green hydrogen, for the power sector has the potential to impact various stakeholders, including industries and the government, significantly. This strategy aligns with transitioning to cleaner and more sustainable energy sources, contributing to national and international environmental targets. Adopting green hydrogen storage can contribute to energy security by diversifying the sources of power generation.