決策訊息流與秦帝國衰亡的關係

Relationship between the Flow of Decisional Messages and the Fall of the Qin Empire

Abstract

LANGUAGE NOTE | Document text in Chinese; abstract also in English.

秦國的衰落和它對決策訊息流的處理，有莫大的關係。政策形成到落實過程中，訊息流動的方向如下：資料搜集-->訊資分析與制訂政策-->推行政策-->監察與回饋。秦統一前後的資料收集渠道的共同點：國内人民無表達自由，但秦國長期輸入人才，由游士以及外交使節帶來了大量可供使用的材料，有助秦廷作出理性的決策；秦國的基建、傳書律法完密，硬件良好。

理性決策意指：決策層以合理程序，篩選資料變成資訊，作專業判斷，建立可行方案或反對意見，並挑選出最合適的來制訂政策。秦廷理性決策能力衰落的原因：君主能力、王子教育、“用賢”的本心、知識分子的保障等。秦朝已建立起嚴密的公文查核制度和驛站制度，以加强監察。但“徒法不足以自行”，非理性的決策，破壞現有體制，地方大吏只有“持禄取容”，促成秦帝國的土崩瓦解。

The relationship between the fall of Qin Dynasty and the flow of decisional messages are closely connected. The flow of the decisional messages can be summarized as follows: collection of data-->analysis of data and enactment of policy-->implementation of policy-->monitoring and feedback. Though freedom of speech was forbidden within the boundary, the common channel for collecting information in the pre-Qin and the Qin Dynasty was through imports of talents and professionals who brought with them valuable information for diplomatic use and for making rational decision. The well-developed infrastructure and the sophisticated legal system both contributed to the rise of the Qin Empire.

Rational decision, at the decision-making level, includes implementation of rational procedures, screening of information, application of professional judgment, and finally selection of the feasible and appropriate policy. The fall of the rational decision during the Qin Dynasty relied on the emperor’s competency, education of the princes, selection of talents, and the security of the intellectuals. The irrational decision making process has devastated the Qin Dynasty despite the fact that the empire was enjoying a sophisticated censorship and monitoring system.